Financial subsidies to implement open space for development of new energy vehicles
Ministry of Finance revealed that the Ministry and the Ministry of Science, Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of National Development and Reform Commission have jointly issued "on the purchase of new energy vehicles to carry out subsidies for private pilot's notice," China's five cities for new energy vehicles will receive up to 60,000 subsidy. "Notice", said the central government for the private pilot cities to purchase, registration and use of plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars and passenger cars for one-time subsidy.
The promotion of new energy vehicles is the social use of existing transport and energy systematic revolution, involving a new economic growth point, energy security, environmental protection, the three current major challenges facing the global community, its huge initial investment costs, potential benefits external and system complexity of the government in the early stages of industry support and promotion is very important. It is based on this, governments have increased for new energy vehicles, especially electric car R & D and promotion support.
This "new energy automotive industry competition," an important sign that the Obama administration in March last year announced the arrangements 24 billion to support plug-in electric car R & D and industry (1.5 billion dollars to support advanced battery research and development and industry), and made 2015 in the U.S. production of new energy vehicles 1 million. Relevant government encouragement, support policies are increasingly driven electric vehicles as the future mainstream of new energy vehicles, such as the Japanese industry in March this year, Ministry of Economy set 2020,2030 vehicle sales target in the new energy is mainly electric vehicle, Spain in April Government announced that electric car allowance policy, said, "is an electric car can not stop the trend." Subsidies from the national point of view, domestic subsidies has been with the United States, Japan, Europe, the allowances equal to or even slightly higher. And because China's domestic enterprises in the battery and electric car production have the cost advantage that will make domestic electric vehicle to obtain more foreign greater impetus.
Part of the country's national announcement of the new energy automotive industry supports the policies and objectives
Demand forecasting of new energy vehicles
Donghai Securities that the new energy era of large-scale commercial vehicles has come, especially lithium battery hybrid plug-in hybrids will usher in even more explosive growth. Reference to the major automobile-producing countries of the new energy vehicle development goals, predicted that by 2015 the global new energy vehicles (only electric vehicles, including hybrid and pure electric vehicles) sales will reach 7 million, of which lithium new energy vehicles will be 560 million units, accounting for 80% of the ratio of plug-in hybrid will reach about 3.2 million, accounting for about 46% reach.
(1) 2009 global vehicle sales of about 60 million, 2015, this figure will be 8000-9000 million. According to the planning powers of the target car, new energy vehicles in 2015 accounted for the proportion of total car sales will be at least about 10%. 2015, a total of 7 million new energy vehicles sales forecast is still cautious.
(2) forecast next year, Ni-MH battery can maintain a rapid growth in hybrid sales, but then quickly transferred to shrink. Lithium new energy vehicles will be entered in this year's explosive growth over the next five years, can maintain a high growth rate, the proportion of lithium car will increase rapidly.
Part of the planning objectives of the country's new energy vehicles
Lithium-ion battery demand forecasts and related companies
Battery is the core of new energy vehicles, the most critical components. As predicted lithium-ion batteries will soon become a mainstream alternative to nickel-hydrogen batteries power batteries, focus on new energy vehicles for the demand-pull power lithium battery. Overall, a conventional hybrid the battery is about 1000 per security, the plug-in hybrid is about 5000 Ah, pure electric cars when demand is more than 10,000 security. This standard, combined with lithium car sales forecast to predict the next three years will demand global power lithium battery safety 1.45 billion, 54 million security, 96 million security. By 2015, global Li-ion battery power demand will reach about 34.6 billion Ah. Therefore, the lithium battery is likely in the next 10-20 years to develop into a several hundred billion-dollar global market. A few dominant companies will gain most of the growth of the industry results, the company's investment in this area should be "re-light price" principle, the quality of future competition in strategic emerging industries can bring a higher probability of winning the potential growth returns will be much higher than the increase in short-term high-valuation of the investment cost.
Lithium chain of new energy automotive industry-related companies
Charging station in the investment peak
The "notice" also pointed out that city government is a private pilot purchase of new energy vehicles and pilot implementation of the main responsibilities of the main, to arrange for some money and put the appropriate supporting policies and measures, focusing on the charging station and other infrastructure construction, acquisition and new energy vehicles used battery scrap and recycling system and other support.
State Grid had on the planning, the first stage of charging station master total investment will reach 300 million yuan, the second phase of 14 billion yuan in the third phase of 18 billion to the charging station master in 2020 the total investment will reach 32 billion yuan . Charging station master in charge, power monitoring systems, active filter installed? The scale of investment in 2010 will reach 1.5 billion yuan, 20 million yuan, 63 million yuan, the second phase of the annual average investment size will rapidly grow to 14.4 billion yuan, 160 million yuan, 672 million yuan. 2020, a total investment of 12.5 billion yuan charge pile. 2010 charging pile investment 160 million yuan ,2011-2015 charging pile investment 4.5 billion yuan, an annual investment of 900 million yuan, is the first stage investment of 5 times the average.
Charging station and charge pile construction process need to use many devices, such as chargers, power monitoring systems, active filter installed? , Charging pile, transformers, power distribution cabinets, cable, etc. Charger, power monitoring systems, active filter installed? , Charging station charging pile is used up and the process of building a relatively unique electrical equipment. Charger and charge pile equipment suppliers NARI (46.17,0.35,0.76%), XJ Electric (34.45,1.36,4.11%), Siyuan Electric (30.37,0.79,2.67%), Auto Motion (32.49, 2.67,8.95%), active filter installed? Equipment suppliers Hidenobu shares (36.80,0.75,2.08%), Siyuan Electric, Senyuan Electric (41.76,0.89,2.18%), power monitoring systems equipment suppliers NARI, XJ Electric, National Power South ( 20.16,0.00,0.00%). On the whole, companies benefit from the charging station construction in the order of: NARI, XJ Electric, Hidenobu shares Senyuan Electrical, Auto Motion, Siyuan Electric, National Power South.
Benefit from the charging station construction companies
According to the Ministry of Finance of the "energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and extension of financial subsidies for Interim Measures" (hereinafter referred to as the "Interim Measures") provides demonstration and popularization of energy-saving and new energy vehicles must be included in the "Recommended models directory." Ministry since August 11, 2009 announced the first batch of "energy saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and application of recommended models directory" (hereinafter referred to as "recommended models directory") has recommended a total of 11 batches so far. A total of 43 manufacturers of 47 brands, a total of 110 kinds of models into the "Recommended models directory."
Encourage the private purchase of cars will enter the terms "recommended models directory," the company is expected to benefit first. To have been listed BYD F3DM low carbon version (169,800 yuan price), for example, private consumers such as the maximum car allowance of 60,000 yuan, the actual car cost about 11 million (35% decrease ), although less common F3 current price of about 6 million is still a big gap, but the process used to reduce the cost of fuel and parking, priority policy on the card will increase the attractiveness of electric vehicles. Comprehensive "buy + use" cost of conventional fuel vehicles, electric vehicles and the gap is not out of reach.
As the car companies to invest in the underlying class is limited, Highlights, Shanghai Automotive (16.51,0.28,1.73%) (600104), Chang'an Automobile (10.35,0.51,5.18%) (000625).
If you consider all the models, the vehicle on the A-share companies, recommended Shanghai Automotive (600104), Foton (18.27,0.51,2.87%) (600 166), Chang'an Automobile (000625), King Long Motor (7.58,0.43, 6.01%) (600 166), concerned about the Yutong Bus (15.28,0.55,3.73%) (600 166), Dawn shares (16.80, -0.49, -2.83%) (600 303), and Ankai (11.67,1.06,9.99 %) (000868), there are transactional opportunities.
Disclaimer: This article is based on today's investment platform data analyst online editing, does not mean that today's investment point of view, this article is for reference only, not as a basis for investment, investors should carefully control the investment risk.
